I just want to say that the November 2010 elections are seven whole months away. That is a long time; much can happen. Indeed, just two month's ago, the health insurance reform legislation was being declared "dead," but it passed last night, getting its final vote, with all Republicans and only a handful of craven Democrats voting in opposition.
There is a lot of loud bluster now about how the statute is unconstitutional, how it must be repealed: the unreasonable opposition that was created during the legislative campaign leading up to its passage hasn't let up, and indeed, it may continue for quite a while. Reasonable voices, like David Frum's, are being silenced, and I would expect more of that. There has been quite a bit of violence and intimidation, and I would expect more of that, too. The shrill will get shriller.
Still, while our recent political dialog has been dominated almost exclusively by the totally unrealistic and unreasonable claims of the right wing--that health care reform would be "armageddon" for American democracy and liberty. That isn't true in any sense at all, and now (as the news is starting to cover what is actually in the statute, which they failed to do before passage) ordinary people are learning its contents which, they are finding out, are on the whole quite beneficial.
I think our political news and debates are dominated to a considerable extent by right-wing fanatics, with Obama trying to be reasonable and fair, giving every point of view a hearing, and doing a wonderful job of that. But I also think that there must be a fairly large segment of the population, what in the past was termed the "silent majority," that has to be perhaps a bit uninformed, not very active, but still, fundamentally reasonable in their point of view.
How big as that "reasonable center?" I have no idea. I don't think that the crackpot/teaparty/republican group can be over 30%, although they certainly get much more than 30% of media attention. And of course there are some confirmed Democrats at large as well.
Anyhow, it seems to me that it will be extremely difficult for the Republicans to run, 7 months from now, on the "how horrible health care reform is, let's repeal it" platform. A fair number of Americans will have a more accurate appraisal of what Congress has wrought by then, and new issues will have emerged, too. The Republicans do have a problem in that there is nothing they are for; they have no even tentative solutions to any national problems. Like Mayor Daley once asked, "what trees to they plant?" They plant no trees: all they scatter are weeds, really sharp and prickly and destructive ones, ones that kill the grass and despoil neighborhoods.
It is hard to believe that can do them a whole lot of electoral good, and it certainly doesn't provide a basis for governing, for holding office. I'm not making a prediction that Republicans won't pick up seats, and it seems likely that some Republican legislators will be replaced by even more "conservative" competitors. But, still, the Republicans are not in a strong position to get large-scale, committed, political support. Perhaps the Democrats won't be either, but at least the Democrats will have one major accomplishment (and very likely several more) to show for their time as the majority. That's more than the Republicans have in recent decades.
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